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Documents from this period show that as early as 1958 the CIA was exploring the possibility that India might choose to develop nuclear weapons. The reports focus on a wide range of nuclear related matters - nuclear policy (including policy concerning weapons development), reactor construction and operations, foreign assistance, the tests themselves, and the domestic and international impact of the tests.
This analysis begins by accepting Indian claims concerning the depth of the test as well as a yield of between 10 and 15 kilotons. If those numbers were accurate then, judging from the size of the crater and the absence of venting, it appeared that the device had been detonated in hard, dry rock - the type of rock that a peaceful nuclear explosion might be used to excavate.
The document also looks at the possibility of India testing an atomic weapon, but could find no indication of the likelihood of such a test, nor the time frame in which it would occur. It concludes that the best intelligence on nuclear weapons tests by India in 1974 was what was available from public sources - and that the best intelligence on India's nuclear weapons program in 1974 was what was gathered by the U.S. Intelligence Community - information that the U.S. intelligence community gathered on all India's nuclear-related activities.
In 1976, India declared its first nuclear weapons program. This document is one of a series of intelligence reports that were taken from the National Security Archive, the Sanger Center, the University of Chicago and the University of Maryland.
It is meant to illustrate how U.S. intelligence has assessed India's nuclear weapons capabilities, program, intention, and political environment. It does not purport to show how the U.S. government responded to this assessment, or the State Department's or the CIA's thinking about India's nuclear posture.
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